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Friday, October 17, 2008

Hide Ahead In Epsom

NBR Political Editor Ben Thomas

The Act Party is almost certain to return to Parliament with leader Rodney Hide holding a huge lead in the Epsom electorate race, internal polling obtained by the National Business Review suggests. The poll of 600 voters, taken on Sunday and Monday, suggests Mr Hide is leading with 56% of voters compared to 27% National list MP Richard Worth, whom he beat for the seat in 2005 to gain a surprise win.

The Epsom results should not be taken for granted, because internal polling is not audited. However, Mr Hide’s pollsters have an impressive track record – last election they proved more accurate than flawed independent polls of the electorate and successfully predicted his victory.

Mr Hide needs to keep the Epsom seat to ensure that Act makes it into Parliament. If he wins Epsom, Act will get its full share of the party vote represented in Parliament without having to reach the 5% threshold under MMP. Act has consistently polled under 5% since the last election, but has tracked up slightly in recent polls to between 1.5% and 2.5%. That would bring two more Act MPs into Parliament – useful for National in forming a government, as the election race looked to tighten up even before a difficult week and a half for that party


Blogger Rob Good said...

Looks good. I think ACT are on about 4.5% in Auckland and 3.5% nationwide so with a bit more of a boost and Rodney winning Epsom then New Zealand will be in good shape after the election with a change of government and a government of change. With a good push, the right publicity and the smart folks of NZ giving ACT the party vote in this election, I can see ACT getting more than 10% of the vote beating their previous best of just over 7%.

1:22 PM  
Blogger Trevor Loudon said...

I agree Rob. ACT is going to surprise the pundits this election.

10:57 PM  

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